"The structure of China's gear industry is irrational. As a result, a small number of enterprises have lost money or even gone bankrupt. However, in the case of such micro growth, Shanghai Gear General Plant, Shandong Shengrui and other companies have successfully completed the structural adjustment in time and embarked on the road of rapid development." on December 10th, 2015, Lu Chao, director of the gear technology branch of the China Society of automotive engineering and chairman of Tianjin Tianhai synchronous group, This was said at the "2015 China gear industry development summit" held in Shanghai. At the two-day meeting, experts from all over the country and representatives of enterprises all felt the urgency and pressure of the situation, and they all exchanged their views and coping strategies.

In 2015, China's automatic transmission increased by 30%, and new energy vehicles increased by three times. Lu Chao said with emotion, "these changes in the automotive industry have inspired our gear industry. In 2016, China's gear industry will enter a critical period of a new round of industrial restructuring."

The causes of economic power failure in China

At the 2015 China gear industry development summit, xuzhenyu, School of economics, Beijing business and Technology University, believed that from Japan's experience, the decline in growth rate is inevitable. The high growth has ended permanently, China's economic power has failed, and the reason for the gradual disappearance of the basic dividend is that the global economic rebalancing is imperative, and China's exports will remain depressed for a long time; During the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the total population dependency ratio hit the bottom and rebounded. The Lewis turning point has arrived, and the population flow between rural and urban areas has reached the limit; Excessive capitalization of the real estate and land markets has led to asset bubbles, distortions in the industrial structure and social contradictions, and land rents have become increasingly expensive.

Dr. chenyongjie, Deputy Secretary General of the China Center for international economic exchanges and director of the Research Office of the Federation of industry and commerce, said in the link of macroeconomic situation analysis that although made in China has shown the characteristics of the world in many aspects, such as the overall scale of the manufacturing industry, the import and export scale of the manufacturing industry, the output of the main products of the manufacturing industry, the number of manufacturing enterprises, the number of employees in the manufacturing industry, the number of patents in the manufacturing industry, the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry In many aspects, such as the integrity of the manufacturing industry system, China's manufacturing industry has ranked first in the world. However, compared with the comprehensive indicators of the four world manufacturing powers, the United States, Japan and Germany, China's manufacturing industry is still at the second-class level of technological quality. Among them, weak independent innovation ability, low product grade, low efficiency of resource and energy utilization, low overall quality of labor force, enlarged emission of manufacturing pollution, unreasonable industrial structure, low level of informatization and low degree of industrial internationalization are still the main obstacles restricting the high-end and strong development of China's manufacturing industry.

Xuzhenyu believes that the current haze has given birth to the environmental protection industry and the new energy industry. At the same time, the rise in wages has forced the automation of factory machinery. The current situation forces China's manufacturing industry to develop only through innovation.

Diminishing marginal benefits drive innovative development

Lishengqi, Secretary General of China gear industry alliance, pointed out that lishengqi also had a profound understanding of China's economic development stage. He believed that China's overall manufacturing industry would develop in the direction of a virtuous cycle from low-level structural surplus and factor driven diminishing marginal returns to efficiency and innovation driven, innovation and continuous innovation. In this process, the "hybrid power" driven by innovation, efficiency and factors will become the main driving force for China's economic development, and the gear industry will also complete its transformation and upgrading under the big economic background.

Ending the production of pure fuel vehicles in 2050 is not just a dream

From January to October 2015, a total of 206900 new energy vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 3 times. 87100 pure electric passenger vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 3 times, and 45500 plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 3 times. 59300 pure electric commercial vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 9 times, and 15000 plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 88%. Dr. zhangyaming of China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. said at the meeting that relying on the continuous progress of science and technology, the future automotive world will be an era of gradual decline of traditional fuel vehicles. It is not just a dream to end the production of pure fuel vehicles in 2050. He said: "wheel motor (electric wheel) drive, without the need for automotive transmission system, is worth paying attention to."

The era of replacing traditional gears has developed rapidly

In view of the current economic pressure and the new pattern of technological innovation and industrial structure adjustment, LV Chao put forward some suggestions to the participants: he said, first of all, we should carefully study the content of made in China 2025 and formulate relevant plans for the next 10 years (including the 13th five year plan and the 14th five year plan). Made in China 2015 is mainly divided into three parts: five contents, five projects and ten development fields.

Five contents: improving innovation ability, deep integration of informatization and industrialization, strengthening basic ability, quality control and brand building, and green manufacturing. Five major projects: innovation focused project, intelligent manufacturing project, green manufacturing project and high-end equipment innovation project. There are six related fields in the top ten development neighborhoods: high-end CNC machine tools and robots, aerospace equipment technology, marine engineering and high-tech communication, advanced tracks and equipment, new energy vehicle field, and agricultural machinery equipment.

Lu Chao believes that entrepreneurs should deeply understand the gear innovation technology related to new energy. Learn the 10 key tasks of Tal gear industry. He said that in 2025, the next 10 years will face challenges. Taking automobiles as an example, it is expected that the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the world will reach 30% by 2030, and 36million pure electric vehicles will be developed. The gears matching with traditional automobiles will be constantly replaced by new technologies. Wheel side motor drive and wheel hub motor drive will replace the traditional engine and transmission system. In the era of wheel hub motor drive, the axle gear and transmission shaft, axle gear socket and gearbox will be completely replaced, which has a great impact on the whole industry and the situation is not optimistic.

Crisis is opportunity. Where is the opportunity?

Lu Chao believes that there are four opportunities for China's gear industry. The first is the opportunity for the industrialization of automatic transmission. The supporting parts and components will develop rapidly in the next 3-5 years. For example, in 2015, the sales of Shanghai Automotive gear plant will exceed 12.5 billion, and it may become the industry's leader. It mainly relies on the transformation of automatic transmission production. Although its total output has declined, its total sales have increased due to the increase in added value, The traditional purchase was 700 yuan, but now the automatic transmission sells 15000 yuan, a gap of 20 times. For another example, Shandong Shengrui company sold 3000 units in 2014 and 30000 units in 2015, an increase of 10 times.

The second is the opportunity of new energy industrialization. From January to October 2015, it increased by three times, 200000 sets. By 2020, China's new energy vehicles will reach 1million units, and the annual output will reach 5million units by 2025, which will be explosive and the state of micro growth or zero growth of our traditional vehicles.

The second is the opportunity of intelligent vehicle industrialization. At the same time, take the opportunity of internationalization.

Lu Chao believes that there are two bottlenecks affecting the development of enterprises. First, technology is backward, so technological progress is necessary. The second is that technology investment has not kept up. Therefore, both are indispensable. In the past, automotive innovation was based on Germany. Today, automotive innovation is based on Tesla in Silicon Valley of the United States. Innovation is an inexhaustible driving force. Internationalization is to truly realize the matching with international products, so as to realize China's dream of becoming a powerful country with gears.